News of Michael Oliver being appointed to referee the Manchester derby has inevitably concerned some United fans. Manchester City have won two of the three derbies he’s officiated and one victory even saw Chris Smalling sent off for a double booking. Oliver has history with Ander Herrera as well – he issued the dogged Spaniard a controversial red card last season against Chelsea in the FA Cup, leading to public criticism from Jose Mourinho.

In truth though, Oliver isn’t the strict disciplinarian those decisions might initially suggest. He actually ranks ninth out of the Premier League’s 18 referees for fouls per game this season – solid mid-table – and is in the bottom five for fouls per tackle. He does allow physical challenges and he does allow the game to flow – but when the 32-year-old feels someone has crossed the line, he’s incredibly quick to act and often with the full force of the law.

That’s evident in Oliver’s other two major statistical returns this season, ranking fifth for yellow cards per game and third for penalties per game, and it’s something United must be wary of. Oliver clearly works on very thin margins and in addition to averaging over two fouls more per match than City so far this season, it’s the home side who will likely be doing the majority of the defending on Sunday as they look to soak up pressure and hit the visitors on the counter.

Disappointingly though, Oliver’s presence probably spells bad news for the neutrals. His tendency to make those big calls inevitably puts him at centre-stage in such a huge game, when we should be focusing on the actual football, and 39% of the matches the 32-year-old has officiated this season have ended in draws. Knowing Mourinho’s tactics and the importance of Sunday’s clash in the context of the title race, it’s likely to be a low-scoring one.

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